I am speaking to you today against a background of recent speech by the the Finance Minister Honorable Mthuli Ncube. In his opening remarks the minister admitted to the existence of “exchange rate volatility, which has translated into unsustainable levels of inflation.” He went on to say that “government is taking measures to stabilise the exchange rate and to bring down inflation to sustainable levels in order to achieve macro-economic stability.”
According to him “Macro-economic stability is an essential component of the Transitional Stabilisation Programme, critical for economic growth and the achievement of the goals set out in H.E.’s Vision 2030. As is characteristic of this Government the decision to implement a holistic package of key policy measures is just a mere lip service meant to entertain the international community while at the same time keeping the general Zimbabwean populace hopeful. Mthuli should be told that stating the obvious is not good economics but just cheap political propaganda. Wishing the disappearance of the parallel market is a good thing but is not what is expected of a government minister. We want the minister to lead rather than simply react to economic fundamentals. Mthuli should be told that he is a minister of government and not a minister of religion. He should not lead the country with prophetic utterances but with deliberate economic planning.
Since the finance minister took office Zimbabwe has been kept on its toes with high expectations that something in the region of sound economics will come up and save the nation. However, what the Minister has managed to serve at our table is what can be best described as groping economics. As the famous saying goes, “a fruit does not fall far from the tree”. The Mthulian kind of economic policies are a mirror image of the Mnagagwean trial and error politics. The truth is that as we blindly grope in the dark led by a team of political and economic pretenders we will continue kicking pricks. It is clear that existing economic policies as pursued by minister Mthuli are unable either to explain the causes of the severe economic collapse or to provide an adequate public solution to jump-start production and employment.
Prudence demands that if the Mnangagwa regime realizes that they have hit an imagination drought they should enlist our help. As LEAD we are more than able to spearhead a revolution in economic thinking that will overturn the prevailing Mthulian idea that free markets will automatically provide economic stability. It is unfortunate for Mthuli to think and mislead the Zimbabwean public with the illusion that economic stability will dawn on us by pursuing a laissez faire economic approach. The main plank of the LEAD economic approach (taking after Keynes) instead asserts that aggregate demand—measured as the sum of spending by households, businesses, and the government—is the most important driving force in an economy. We believe that free markets have no self-balancing mechanisms that lead to economic growth and development.
As LEAD we propose government intervention through public policies that aim to achieve full employment and price stability. We believe that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocate for active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle.
Our blunt but worthy advice to the Mnangagwa regime is that they should abandon fumbling economics. It failed during the Mugabe era. It keeps failing throughout Afrika and the third world. It is definitely bound to fail under the supervision of both Mthuli and Mnangagwa. Thriving black market cannot be blown away by high sounding bookish government pronouncements. The only way out is a deliberate effort to create employment and regulate the conduct of industry and the banking sector. Black-market currency trading is easy and profitable business. Its effect is insurmountable. As we are witnessing in Zimbabwe it gives birth to fly by night millionaires. It frustrates sound and sustainable investment and industrial growth and economic development. Its worst impact is that it creates monopoly capitalism and cartels while at the same time plunging the poor deep into poverty. When you see millions of youths wondering up and down the streets doing nothing it is a sign of failing economic policies. When you see government budgeting for food relief and donor funding know that the economic approach has failed. Our people cannot afford the most basics such as sanitary wear yet Mthuli continues to sing a song of imagined hope.
As is hinted herein above, aggregate demand is influenced by many economic decisions—public and private. Private sector decisions can sometimes lead to adverse macroeconomic outcomes, such as reduction in consumer spending as what is obtaining at the moment in our country. These market failures call for active policies by government, such as a fiscal stimulus package. We have the resources as a nation to cause this stimulus. We, as LEAD support and advise government to adopt a mixed economy guided mainly by the private sector but partly operated by the government. The guiding principle in such an approach is redistributive justice. Those that are at a vantage economic position should subsidies government spending and fund the welfare of the poor. Prices and especially wages generally respond slowly to changes in supply and demand, resulting in periodic shortages and surpluses, especially of labour. A proactive government should be cognizant of this fact and come up with policies that influence the trends in prices and wages. This will make sure that wages are not overtaken by prizes and production keeps ahead of consumption.
Our banking systems are primitive. Banks in one country are operating on different packages which shows lack of seriousness in addressing the crisis bedevilling Zimbabwe. About 85% of Zimbabweans languish in poverty and the government must adopt strategies that are conducive to inclusive growth and anchored in inclusive financial intermediation by ensuring ease of access, availability and use of the formal financial system by all members of the economy.
The financial sector is the lifeblood of the national economy, we cant have economic development when the learned professor is playing games with our economy. Zimbabwe doesn't need a currency stabilization taskforce. This taskforce is a sheer waste of taxpayers funds as we already have a Financial Intelligence Unit. (Economy haigadzirwi nemataskforce).We want to make it clear that as LEAD we will not sit back and watch Minister Mthuli destroying our economy whilst taking Zimbabweans as fools with his unending monetary policies which never yield any positive results towards economic development. We are tired of his semantics and mind games that he is playing with the people of Zimbabwe.
The transacting public lost faith in our banking sector about 15 years ago. There is no public confidence and Mthuli Ncube continues to erode public confidence in the new dispensation. How do you strengthen the Zimdollar when you are generating electronic money without corresponding exports? Where in the world have you seen a currency called rtgs$? We are in a sorry state were culprits of economic sabotage and destabilization are trying to give solutions of a crisis they created which they fuel everyday.
The Reserve bank of Zimbabwe should be accountable. Minister Mthuli Ncube should be accountable as well. When he announced the 2020 budget how much money was in his coffers? Governor Mangudya should inform the nation how much rtgs and Zim$ is circulating in Zimbabwe and how much USD we have in our banking system.
Zimbabwe is the only country which has zipit rates, ecocash rates, swipe rates, bond rate, etc. This madness should stop forthwith. Anywhere in the world I can purchase a car with rtgs and I am not given a rate which is different from a perceived cash rate. Beyond the confusion in our economy us Zimbabweans are also too harsh on each other and we have turned into ruthless capitalists. Without a functional banking sector there will be no economic turnaround. Dr John Mangudya has failed to monitor money, in short he has failed his mandate as Reserve bank Governor. There is no digital trail on rtgs transfers and transactions. We don't have security features to protect depositors from rtgs and cyber crimes. People are losing thousands of dollars on a daily basis yet we have a governor who is incompetent and useless. What Mangudya needs to do is to create international linkage of accounts operated by RBZ and have real time automated deductions and payments of all exporters to curb externalization of money.
The way forward is to prioritize banking sector reforms as a matter of emergency. Regional banks are reluctant to do business with Zimbabwean banks because we dont have standard modern security features in our banking system. Biometrics are very important nowadays. How does the finance minister strengthen our local currency when there is no forex regulation? The so called "floating rates" is just another term to entrench corrupt activities within the banking sector and to cover up the uncouth fiscal indiscipline at the Reserve Bank.
Banks should have regulations on thejr modus operandi. We cant have banks performing as they please without checks and balances. The challenges we face from the cash shortages means most people rely on swiping and mobile money transactions yet most retail outlets complain of shortage of swipe machines. Banks have an obligation to supply swipe machines and there should be a regulation in place that every shop must have a swipe machine on every teller in the shop.
Failure by Mangudya to govern banks has led to a lot of criminal activities by banks which are also culprits in supplying cash on the black market. ATMs should have cash at any given time and any bank that fails to comply should face stiff penalties. Banks must not oversubscribe and RBZ should do a daily audit of how hard cash is disbursed and used. RBZ should regulate and protect the transcating public from banking malpractices. Creating a conducive environment for investment and protect investors. Business is not making sense because prices are changing daily as forex rates keep fluctuating. 2% retention fee should be scrapped immediately unless employees and businesses can have tax returns every end of our financial year.
We suggest the following banking sector reforms;
1) Depositers security should be strengthened by having proper insurance packages to protect depositors funds
2) Banks have to create an infrastructure to curb cyber crimes, money laundering, fake rtgs transactions, etc
3) We need to fully digitalize our banking system.
4)Track DHL packages of cash in transit in real time.
There is need to set up the Prudential Zimbabwe regulatory authority... to annexure 1
It is not a crime to admit failure, resign and pave way for other people who have ideas and solutions on practical ways to solve the economic crisis in Zimbabwe. As long as the finance ministry is not designing macroeconomic policies and strategies that encourage full participation of all citizens in the process of economic development and enabling access to financial services there will be no economic growth in Zimbabwe. We expect a serious government to facilitate inclusive, pro-poor growth. Zimbabwe is just not for the political elite, it belongs to every Zimbabwean regardless of social structures. We are going to be a thorn in Minister Mthuli Ncube until he starts serving the interests of Zimbabwe ahead of the interests if his former employer the world bank.
#TogetherWeCan make Zimbabwe great again, if we all play our roles, hold government to account without fear or favour and desist from participating in corrupt, unethical and uncouth dealings.
I thank you.
Linda Tsungirirai Masarira
LEAD PRESIDENT